HD DVD vs. Blu-ray: Does Anyone Care?

At the 2006 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas in January, the two new high-definition, optical-disc video formats, HD DVD and Blu-ray, vied for the attention of showgoers. In his Daily Diaries from the show, Jeff Fritz noted that the manufacturers supporting Blu-ray appeared more numerous and more organized than the HD DVD camp. The latter seemed to comprise only Toshiba, who announced the March availability of HD DVD players at $499 and $799. I saw one other company, RCA/Thomson, showing an HD DVD player, but nearly every other major consumer-electronics manufacturer exhibited at least one Blu-ray product at an impressive joint display or in their own booths, and said that their machines would be available in the middle or latter part of the year at prices of $1000 and up. Most film studios expect to have a handful of titles -- mainly back catalog, as well as a very few new releases -- available in the formats at their respective launches, though these plans are still tentative.

But other than at trade shows such as CES, the industry seems to be getting little information out to consumers about the new formats. I can’t help but wonder if the average consumer is even aware of them, let alone cares about them. Meanwhile, many in the industry argue that the demand for a new high-definition video format is evident in the brisk sales of HD-ready televisions.

The way I see it, the current DVD format is sufficient for most consumers. I recently watched the Toy Story 2 (Special Edition) DVD, and the video quality of this remastering was excellent. Granted, the picture was a bit soft when compared to true high-definition source material, but I’ll bet most people would be perfectly satisfied with the picture quality of this well-produced DVD. Other recent DVDs, such as Sin City, Corpse Bride, and some of Columbia TriStar’s wonderful Superbit releases, demonstrate just how good the picture quality of a standard DVD can be.

Don’t get me wrong -- I love watching hi-def video. But on my 34" HD-ready TV, while the differences in picture quality between a high-quality, over-the-air HDTV broadcast and a well-made DVD are certainly noticeable, they’re not all that significant. If Blu-ray and HD DVD have picture qualities similar to that of an HDTV broadcast -- as they should -- then the improvement over standard DVD will not be particularly striking on my display. The differences would certainly be more noticeable with a high-end video projector, but, like me, most consumers have far more modest display devices. I suspect that the vast majority of the millions of HD-ready TVs being sold are 30-40" flat panels and 50-60" rear projectors of only fair quality. With such displays, the average consumer may not be overly concerned with the improvement in picture quality over DVD wrought by HD DVD and Blu-ray.

While those of us in the industry continue to debate the relative merits of HD DVD and Blu-ray and which will win the format war, the real question is whether the market can support a hi-def optical-disc format. Most people would of course love to have an HD DVD or Blu-ray player to go along with their HD-ready television, but would they be willing to pay $500 or $1000 or more for it? There is also the inevitable initial lack of selection of movie titles for any new format. Until enough players are sold to create a large demand for the new HD discs, the film studios won’t ramp up their release schedules, and will charge higher prices than for standard DVDs.

I attended a huge press conference at CES a few years ago at which Sony, backed by several other manufacturers and music labels, touted the benefits of the high-resolution Super Audio Compact Disc (SACD). They envisioned that SACD players would become commonplace in a few years, and that consumers would soon be replacing their CD collections with higher-rez SACDs. At the same time, the DVD-Audio hi-rez audio format was introduced. While both of these formats are still around, they have been all but abandoned by the major manufacturers and record labels. The problem is that the two formats are in competition, and both SACD and DVD-A players cost more than standard DVD players. The discs also cost more than standard CDs, and the selection of titles remains limited. Sounds a lot like the problems facing HD DVD and Blu-ray.

I don’t disagree with the notion that everyone with an HD-ready television would like to have a high-definition video playback system, but it’s going to be a tough sell. I doubt that many people are willing to pay several hundred or even a thousand dollars or more for a hi-def player when a standard DVD player now costs less than $100. And unless all of the latest big-budget movie releases are made available on the new format, there will be great reluctance among consumers to make the switch from standard DVD -- a handful of new films and back-catalog titles won’t be enough. Whether HD DVD or Blu-ray, better picture quality alone won’t guarantee that people will invest in a new format. Until manufacturers and film studios make the new high-definition players and discs inexpensive and readily available, I believe that most consumers will continue to purchase DVDs.

 ...Roger Kanno
roger@hometheatersound.com

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